Assessing the Effect of Carbon Tariffs on International Trade and Emission Reduction of China’s Industrial Products under the Background of Global Climate Governance

This paper simulates the effect of a carbon tariff on China’s trade of industrial products and emission reduction through the GTAP 8.0 model, when the European Union, the United States, and Japan impose a carbon tariff simultaneously or respectively. The conclusions indicate: (1) a carbon tariff will cause a decrease in exports for high-carbon industries and generate an increase in exports for low-carbon industries; (2) a carbon tariff will cause a greater reduction on imports for low-carbon industries than that for high-carbon industries; (3) a carbon tariff will also generate a noticeable increase in output for light industry and a decrease in output for heavy industry; and (4) a carbon tariff has an obviously positive effect on emission reduction for China’s industrial sector, which bears the most responsibility of emission reduction. Based on these conclusions, this paper puts forward some corresponding policy suggestions.